Playoff Outlooks: Week 9
We’re two days, and one final week of football away from knowing exactly what the post-season landscape looks like for the IHSA football playoffs. That means these write ups, which are full of conjecture and assumption as to the outcomes of numerous games, will all be replaced in a week with actual pairings and head to head comparisons.
Until then, WE RIDE!
As always, we’ll be utilizing projections offered to us by IHSA football playoff guru Steve Soucie of the Kankakee Daily Journal. You can find his full projections at edgytim.com and we strongly urge that you do that!
6A
(8-0) SHG – 32 Playoff Points
The Cyclones hold steady as the No. 2 seed in the 6A South Bracket with Leonard Bowl VI looming, and while their seeding remains the same, their opponent has changed again. This week Soucie has SHG set to meet Chicago Hubbard.
Hubbard is in the Illini Prairie State, a sub-section of the Chicago Public League Conference. They represent what you’d expect in a first round matchup for 9-0 6A team (should SHG beat Rochester, of course). The interesting nugget from Soucie’s projections is a potential Round 2 matchup with Lincoln-Way West. Edgy Tim told us this week that both Lincoln-Way North (No. 1 seed) and Lincoln-Way West (No. 7 seed) represent true challenges for the Cyclones in Class 6A.
(5-3) Glenwood – 35 Playoff Points
Glenwood had two weeks to win one game and they ended the drama early with a dominant win over a hot Eisenhower team in Week 8. That takes some pressure off the Titans as far as making the post season, but 6-3 hypothetically gets you a lot more attractive Round 1 matchup than 5-4 does. That’s the task against Jacksonville.
Right now, Soucie has the Titans set to meet a familiar foe in the first round. Glenwood beat Peoria Notre Dame 31-28 two years ago in the first round before PND returned the favor with a 41-0 trouncing last season in Round 2. Maybe not an ideal matchup, but at least the Titans are in Soucie’s projected 6A field for the first time this season.
(3-5) Southeast – No Longer Post Season Eligible
5A
(5-3) Jacksonville – 35 Playoff Points
It wasn’t that long ago that we saw a Crimsons team go 5-4 and miss the post season. One of the benefits of being in a closed conference (10 team conference) is that the playoff points normally take care of themselves. That’s the case for Jacksonville this week, who is likely into the 5A field, whether or not they end their 21 year losing streak to Glenwood.
Soucie’s projections assume a loss for the Crimsons this week. I mean, with history being what it is, can you blame him? It’s FAR from an automatic, but should Jacksonville lose, they’re still sitting as the No. 16 seed in the South Bracket which continues to pit them against unbeaten Washington in Round 1.
(5-3) Eisenhower – 35 Playoff Points
Eisenhower’s pain train hit a speed bump while doing well over the posted limit last week.
The Good News: Being reminded that winning isn’t easy in Week 8 is better than getting that reminder in the first round.
The Bad News: The Panthers cost themselves any hopes of hosting a first round game. Currently Soucie has them as the No. 13 seed in the 5A bracket which would put them on the road against a Peoria team that SHG beat in the 5A semis a season ago.
4A
(8-0) Rochester – 32 Playoff Points
Rochester cruised through a Week 8 meeting with MacArthur en route to Leonard Bowl VI and because everything went according to plan, the Rockets’ outlook hasn’t changed.
Soucie still has the Rockets as the No. 4 seed in the 4A South. He still has them hosting Alton Marquette in Round 1. Marquette is still the team that lost to Pawnee 30-7 earlier this season. So, yes, you can still plan to be over at Public House 29 good and early for a post game party.
(8-0) Taylorville – 24 Playoff Points
Taylorville beat the last true threat to a perfect 9-0 season in Week 8, with a 45-17 thumping of Mattoon. And because Soucie is projecting an SHG win over Rochester in Week 9, the Tornadoes are actually seeded higher than the Rockets in the 4A field.
The Tornadoes are in as the No. 3 seed in the 4A South bracket, which continues to pit them against Olney Richland County. A quick check in on the Tigers shows a 5-3 team that just lost 54-14 to Newton, who is going to win the Little Illini. Newton is a 3A playoff school, and for reference, they’re currently set to meet Williamsville in Round 1.
3A
(8-0) North Mac – 34 Playoff Points
North Mac’s win over 2A power Chester in Week 8 not only provides some confidence for the Panthers as they head to the post season, but it also keeps them sitting very near the top of the 3A pile from a seeding standpoint.
North Mac continues to be the No. 2 seed in the 3A South Bracket, which currently means a first round meeting with Vandalia. The Vandals (most original mascot ever) still need to beat 3-5 Greenville to earn their fifth win and a spot in the 3A field. For what it’s worth, the seedings below the Panthers have been shaken up enough that they’re not currently looking at a potential second round matchup with Williamsville anymore.
(5-3) Pleasant Plains – 33 Playoff Points
Soucie said this week that the 34 playoff points will get you in and the Cardinals will certainly have that and then some after Week 9. That means Plains is in the post season. Now it’s a matter of who they’ll play.
Soucie has the Cardinals beating Athens, which would simultaneously end the Warriors bid for the post season while pushing Plains up to the No. 11 seed in 3A. It also means a first round matchup with Carlinville in a rematch of last year’s Round 1 game that saw the Cavies win 41-21. Something tells us this pairing would be perfectly fine with a revenge minded Plains squad.
(4-4) Williamsville – 37 Playoff Points
Why do the playoff outlooks often change so much from week to week? Because sometimes, outcomes like Athens over Williamsville happen and surprise all of us. Ahhh, sports.
So instead of a fairly desirable (considering their seeding) Round 1 matchup with Roxana, Williamsville is now projected to meet an undefeated Newton on the road in the first round. Newton will win the Little Illini this week and they just beat a 4A playoff team in Onley 54-14. Of course, Williamsville needs to beat Riverton this week for that to even be an option.
2A
(6-2) New Berlin – 35 Playoff Points
The Pretzels dropped a 40-27 decision to Auburn in Week 8 and they’ve got a powerful Wing-T attack coming to town in the form of West Hancock in Week 9. Worst case scenario, New Berlin would ride a two game losing streak into post season play, but there is some good news Pretzel fans.
After jumping into Class 3A last week, Soucie is projecting New Berlin to drop back to 2A. They’re still the largest 2A school and they’re far from guaranteed a spot here, but the field simply isn’t as deep as it is in 3A. It’s not all roses and rainbows though. Soucie also projects the Pretzels, the No. 6 seed in the 2A South Bracket to meet Auburn, the No. 11 seed in Round 1. Yes, the same Trojans team the Pretzels just lost to.
(5-3) Auburn – 34 Playoff Points
Remember when Dave Bates said “We could be a dangerous 6-3 come playoff time?” Well, turns out that guy who’s coached at Auburn for the last 30 years has an idea of what he’s talking about. The Trojans are a win over Pittsfield away from heading to the post season at 6-3, and as you can see above, Soucie currently thinks that means a first round matchup with New Berlin.
Auburn will make whatever playoff run they can muster without wide receiver Nick Geoghegan (ankle) and two-way lineman Jake Roth (hand). They were without both when they beat the Pretzels in Week 8.
(4-4) Athens – 36 Playoff Points
Ryan Knox and his boys picked a hell of a time to beat Williamsville for the first time in school history in Week 8. The Warriors went for a two-point conversion and the win in overtime against the Bullets last Friday. That sort of kamikaze mentality is exactly why they’re extremely dangerous heading to Plains in Week 9.
The win kept the Warriors post season hopes alive and with their playoff points, they only need to beat Plains to dance in Round 1. Only. Athens is not currently in Soucie’s projected 2A field.
1A
(7-1) Pawnee – 31 Playoff Points
Pawnee all but put the wraps on their first back-to-back conference titles since 1976 when they beat Bunker Hill in Week 8. They’ll travel to Metro East Lutheran in Edwardsville on Friday, and while it’s not expected that the Knights will be much of a challenge for Pawnee, at least it’s not a forfeit like it was for the Indians a season ago.
Pawnee remains steady as the No. 5 seed in 1A South Bracket and they are still set to face Red Hill. The Salukis, who enters Week 9 at 4-4, play fellow 4-4 Flora with the right to extend their season on the line.
