Playoff Outlooks: Week 7

 

Playoff Outlooks: Week 7

 
For the next few weeks we’ll be breaking down what it will take for each of the teams in our viewing area to make the post season and whom they may face when they get there. We’ll be utilizing projections offered to us by IHSA football playoff guru Steve Soucie of the Kankakee Daily Journal. You can find his full projections at edgytim.rivals.com and we strongly urge that you do that!

Playoff points are determined by the number of wins your opponents have and remember that there are no quads this year in any of the classes in the Channel1450.com area. There will be a north bracket and a south bracket seeded 1-16, with No. 1 playing No. 16, No. 2 playing No. 15, etc.
 

6A

(6-0) Sacred Heart Griffin – 24 Playoff Points

The Cyclones have a pair of city schools in Lanphier and Southeast to get through before the Week 9 matchup with Rochester that we’ve all got circled, and while both the Lions and Spartans are tougher matchups than in recent years, it’s safe to assume SHG will be 8-0 heading into that game with the Rockets.

With all of that considered, Soucie has SHG slated as the No. 2 seed in the 6A south bracket. Lincoln-Way North of the Southwest Suburban (Red) Conference is holding down the No. 1 spot thanks to their 31 playoff points.  There are no quads anymore at this level so the Cyclones would host No. 15 Rock Island in the first round based on the current projections, which, as you’ll see over the next few weeks, will be highly volatile.

 
(3-3) Glenwood – 27 Playoff Points

The playoffs are far from a sure thing for the Titans who need to win two of their next three to gain eligibility. Glenwood will be a favorite at home against Springfield in Week 7 before hitting the road for Eisenhower and Jacksonville in Weeks 8 and 9 respectively.

Glenwood appears set to compete in Class 6A for the second straight season should they make the playoffs. Soucie does not have them in the field of 32 currently.

 
(3-3) Southeast – 27 Playoff Points

Southeast also shows up in the current 6A outlook on the IHSA website which is where they landed in last year’s playoffs as well. The Spartans have their work cut out for them if they want to make a return trip, however. If you assume Week 9 against MacArthur is a win, then Southeast has to either beat SHG in Week 8 or Eisenhower this Friday. We’re all thinking the same thing about SHG, so the Spartans are basically in a true “must win” situation at home this week.
 

(2-4) Springfield High – 28 Playoff Points

There’s no more room for mistakes for the Senators who have to beat Glenwood, Lanphier and Eisenhower in that order. That’s certainly not impossible, but we wouldn’t call it likely either. We’ll dive deeper into Springfield’s outlook if they can go to Chatham and pull out a win on Friday.
 

5A

(4-2) Eisenhower – 26 Playoff Points

Who would have thought that Eisenhower would have walked into their Week 7, 8 and 9 matchups as favorites against Southeast, Glenwood and Springfield High? Consider us members of the pleasantly surprised about the tear the Panthers have been on after losing their first two games to Rochester and SHG.

According to Soucie, the Panthers are in the 5A South Bracket and are currently slated to make the long trip to No. 8 Marion, which is near Carbondale. The Wildcats are also 4-2 with their only conference loss in South Seven play coming against undefeated and eventual 4A Belleville Althoff. For Marion, this is the equivalent of the Panthers' loss to Rochester. If Eisenhower wins out, they’ll likely climb into a first round home game.

 
(4-2) Jacksonville – 26 Playoff Points

The Crimsons will become playoff eligible in Week 8 at the latest when they travel to Lincoln and it would take a significant upset against Rochester in Week 7 for them to do it any earlier. They close the season against a Glenwood team that they haven’t beaten in 21 years.

That’s probably why Soucie is projecting the Crimsons to finish 5-4, which currently makes them the No. 16 seed in the 5A South. That would mean a first round road trip to unbeaten Washington who already dismantled their most difficult Mid-Illini foe Metamora 35-0. The No. 2 seed in the 5A south bracket is JCA and Peoria is the No. 3. Simply put, the Crimsons would do themselves a big favor if they could get to 6-3 and potentially go south where they’ve had significant playoff success recently.

 
(2-4) Lanphier – 28 Playoff Points

Lanphier is not mathematically eliminated from the post season yet, but it’s a pretty safe bet that they will be after they host SHG on Friday.
 

4A
 

(6-0) Rochester – 24 Playoff Points

The Rockets have a slightly less than automatic Week 7 matchup against Jacksonville before an all but automatic Week 8 home game against MacArthur. If they handle their business in both, they’ll head to Leonard Bowl VI with a perfect 8-0 mark.

Here’s the thing. How much does a win or a loss in that game mean to Rochester when they head to the 4A playoffs? Not that much, really. Chicago Phillips and Rockford Lutheran are the two teams considered to pose true threats to Rochester and both are in the North half of the 4A bracket so the Rockets wouldn’t see them until the title game.

(6-0) Taylorville – 17 Playoff Points

With a pair of winless teams still on the schedule, the Tornadoes only have one more true test which comes against Mattoon in Week 8. That means the fine folks of Taylorville may witness the first ever 9-0 start in school history and while that's something you can't take away from the Tornadoes, their 17 playoff points are, in a way, an indictment of their strength of schedule. 

After jumping into the 5A post season a year ago, the current projections have Taylorville as the No. 4 seed in the 4A South Bracket. For some perspective, Rochester is the No. 5 seed in that bracked as of this moment. The Tornadoes would host Olney Richland County according to Soucie and the Tigers are 4-2 right now against largely 2A and 3A competition. 

3A

(6-0) North Mac – 25 Playoff Points

The Panthers have already barreled through the most difficult portion of their conference schedule. They’ll be heavy favorites against Riverton this Friday and the same could be said for their Week 9 matchup at PORTA. The only thing then standing between North Mac and a perfect record is a Week 8 road contest against fellow unbeaten Chester, who just happens to be the top seeded team according to IHSA playoff points in Class 2A.

Chester’s success will help pump up North Mac’s playoff points even further and the Panthers are already the No. 2 seed in all of Class 3A right now. According to Soucie, that would mean a first round home game against No. 15 Hillsboro. That’s not what we’re interested in, though. A tasty rematch with Williamsville in round two is. There’s plenty of time for that all to change, of course. But right now, that’s what Soucie's projections are showing. Fans would start showing up a day early for that one…
 

(3-3) Williamsville – 26 Playoff Points

The Bullets bounced back from a three game skid to beat Pittsfield last week and there’s a real chance they could win out with PORTA, Athens and Riverton on the schedule still. Traveling to Athens in Week 8 is far from a gimme but Williamsville will be the favorite.

Current conditions have the Bullets as the 10 seed in the 3A South Bracket which would put them on the road against Carlinville in Round 1. Carlinville beat a 6-3 Pleasant Plains team in the first round last season, so you can expect the Cavies to be competitive if this matchup were to happen.
 

(3-3) Pleasant Plains – 25 Playoff Points

The Cardinals, like Williamsville, are very capable of winning all of their remaining games, which pit them against Pittsfield, PORTA and Athens. Back to back losses to the top two teams in the Sangamo came while Plains was dealing with significant health injuries. If there’s a silver lining, those losses came during a part of the schedule where it’s not a one-and-done format. If they are healthy, they’re extremely dangerous.

Soucie has the Cardinals as the 3A South Bracket’s 13 seed which would lead to a road game against Newton in Round 1. The Eagles are one of two remaining unbeatens in the Little Illini Conference. The other is Marshall who they play this weekend. A year ago Newton was 5-4 and lost in the first round of the 3A playoffs.
 

2A

(5-1) New Berlin – 25 Playoff Points

The Pretzels are the largest school in the 2A field at this point. We’ll most likely watch them bounce back and forth between 2A and 3A over the next few weeks. If New Berlin wants to finish 8-1, they’ve got to get through Athens, Auburn and West Hancock, who’s 5-1 with their only loss coming to QND. To compare common opponents, West Hancock beat Macomb 28-27 and Macomb beat Plains 27-6.

The Pretzels slot as the No. 3 seed in the 2A South Bracket at this point and would host Carlyle in the first round. Carlyle is 3-3 on the season and in third place in the Cahokia Conference, which Columbia currently leads.
 

(3-3) Athens – 26 Playoff Points

Athens has to win two of their final three to gain playoff eligibility. This won’t be an easy task, and the Warriors are aware of that. New Berlin, Williamsville and Pleasant Plains are three of the top four teams in our Sangamo Power Rankings and that’s the gauntlet that lays before Athens.

Because of this, the Warriors are on the outside looking in at Soucie’s projections.
 

(3-3) Auburn – 25 Playoff Points

We’re expecting the Trojans to beat their non-conference opponent Alden-Hebron this Saturday and we expect the same outcome when Auburn travels to Pittsfield in Week 9. We’re not so sure about that Week 8 matchup with New Berlin. Auburn hosts and that game is probably a pick-em. That makes 6-3 a best case scenario and 5-4 a very possible final regular season record.

Soucie has Auburn in as the last team in the 3A South Bracket. That would mean a Round 1 contest at Pana. Not a terribly far drive at least but Panthers are running away with the South Central Conference. Pana is averaging 38.5 points per game while holding their opponents to just four.
 

1A

(5-1) Pawnee – 23 Playoff Points

The Indians have just one final challenge left in the regular season. That's a Week 8 contest against Bunker Hill. If the Indians win that, they'll be back to back Prairie State Champs and they'll take an 8-1 record into the 1A Playoffs. 

According to Soucie that makes Pawnee the No. 5 seed in the 1A South Brack and would mean they'd host Red Hill in the first round. The Salukis come from a deeper and more talented conference and their three losses come against Olney, Marshall and Newton. For perspective, Newton is currently projected to meet Pleasant Plains in Class 3A and Olney is projected to meet Taylorville in Class 4A.

 

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